In September, the sodium battery industry's production remained stable with some increase, and the market is expected to improve in the fourth quarter [SMM Sodium Battery Analysis]

SMM, October 15th:

Market Overview for September 2024: The sodium-ion battery industry continued its stable development, with the most notable progress being in the sodium-ion energy storage demonstration projects. Throughout September, the total investment in ongoing sodium-ion projects exceeded 13 billion yuan.

In September 2024, the sodium-ion battery market performed lower-than-expected, with both shipments and prices remaining mediocre. Some enterprises faced financing difficulties, slowing the development of sodium-ion projects. In contrast, cathode and sodium-ion battery cell enterprises were active, while the anode sector still lacked significant progress. In terms of production, the output of sodium-ion cathode materials and batteries showed an increasing trend, while anode materials remained stable.

In September, nearly twenty major projects were launched across various regions, with a total investment exceeding 13 billion yuan, up about 30% from the previous month. These projects mainly involved the three core materials: cathode, anode, and electrolyte, as well as sodium-ion battery cells. The sodium-ion battery cells and cathode projects accounted for the majority. The projects were widely distributed, covering multiple provinces across the country.

In September, the prices of various materials continued to decline, with sodium-ion batteries in the new energy market constantly seeking lower costs and better performance to enter the market. The rapid development of the sodium-ion battery industry also accelerated the coordinated progress of the upstream and downstream industrial chains. From raw material supply, battery manufacturing to end-use applications, the sodium-ion battery industry chain is continuously improving and expanding. More and more enterprises are steadily establishing themselves in the sodium-ion field, investing in R&D and production resources to promote the innovation and application expansion of sodium-ion battery technology. This coordinated development of the industrial chain will provide strong support for further breakthroughs and market expansion of sodium-ion battery technology.

1. Price Changes in September: LFP prices remained low, while sodium-ion battery cell prices saw a significant decline.

Due to fierce price competition in the market, the price of LFP battery cells dropped significantly, currently down to about 0.3 yuan/Wh, with some market transaction prices even below 0.3 yuan/Wh.

In contrast, sodium-ion battery cells, due to the market not yet expanding on a large scale, have higher costs for the four major materials: cathode, anode, etc. Currently, the prices for different specifications of sodium-ion battery cells are: 50Ah priced at 0.57 yuan/Wh, 100Ah at 0.6 yuan/Wh, and 55Ah prismatic sodium-ion battery cells (NFPP) priced at 0.44 yuan/Wh. The price of sodium-ion battery cells is still more than 50% higher than that of LFP battery cells, making it difficult to gain an advantage in the market through price competition alone.

Therefore, sodium-ion batteries should seek differentiated development paths to avoid falling into price competition and should focus more on improving energy density, cycle life, and safety performance. Sodium-ion batteries should fully leverage their high safety and wide temperature adaptability advantages, focusing on exploring niche markets with profit potential.

In the basic raw materials of sodium-ion batteries, battery-grade sodium carbonate, as a core functional material, accounts for 5%-10% of the total cost of cathode materials. Despite its high price, it has a cost reduction potential of about 50%; raw materials such as phosphorus, iron, nickel, and manganese sources are basically synchronized with those of lithium batteries.

The sodium-ion battery industry needs to improve the yield rate of products at all stages, which is key to reducing costs.

2. Production in September: Sodium-ion cathode production declined, but yield rates improved; sodium-ion anode and battery cell production continued to increase.

1) Cathode Materials
In the sodium-ion cathode materials sector, among the three directions and six sub-products, top-tier enterprises like Zhongke Haina, Xiangying, Wanrun, and Jiana maintained significant production and sales volumes. With the expected increase in domestic and international market demand, production in October is expected to increase, with the energy storage market likely contributing significant growth.

2)Anode Materials
In the anode materials sector, the production of hard carbon anodes remained stable, but challenges remain in improving energy density and reducing costs. Production in October is expected to see significant growth, with an increase of nearly 30%.

In the domestic market, brands like Baisige, BTR, Zhongke Haina, and Rongna performed well in the production and sales of carbon-carbon products. However, many battery cell enterprises still have certain demand and reliance on the higher-priced imported Kureha hard carbon materials due to performance requirements.

3)Sodium-ion Battery Cells (Sodium-ion Batteries)
Enterprises with energy storage demonstration projects, such as Zhongke Haina and Weike Technology, performed well in monthly production. In the new energy battery sector, among the two giants, CATL and BYD, BYD made faster progress in sodium-ion batteries. Meanwhile, companies like Haishida and Zero One Four achieved high production and sales in the start-stop power supply and power tool sectors with sodium-ion batteries.

Production increased by 15% MoM in September, and in October, sodium-ion battery cell production is expected to continue increasing, with domestic and international energy storage projects being continuously delivered.

Overall, in Q3 2024, the market saw growth, technological breakthroughs, and project implementations. However, the current market advancement indicates that this growth is lower than expected, and many enterprises may launch sodium-ion projects in Q4, bringing some demand.

September-October Sodium-ion Battery Industry Market Dynamics (Partial)

[SMM Sodium-ion Analysis] September Sodium-ion Battery Cell and Material Price Changes 2024Q3 Prices Continue to Decline

[Total Investment of 3 Billion Yuan, Bangyu New Energy Henan Energy Storage Battery Industrial Park Project Commences] The project has a total investment of 3 billion yuan and will be implemented in phases to build a 10GWh new energy storage battery industrial park. Phase one covers 150 acres, with an investment of 1 billion yuan, to construct a 2GWh new energy storage battery cell production line and PACK integrated production line, mainly producing high-capacity large aluminum shell and small power lithium-ion battery cells and energy storage PACK; phase two covers 90 acres, with an investment of 1 billion yuan, to build a 3GWh sodium-ion battery and PACK production line; phase three invests 1 billion yuan to construct a 5GWh sodium-ion battery and PACK production line.

[Sodium-ion Project: CATL Cathode and Anode Material R&D and Renovation Project] On September 9, 2024, CATL's Engineering Center Material Pilot Plant Cathode and Anode Material R&D and Renovation Project in Dongqiao, Ningde City, Fujian Province, started the environmental impact report form approval notification commitment system acceptance and pre-approval announcement. The project plans to conduct R&D and renovation in the existing pilot plant C8 area (with an area of 1,300 m²). The project will purchase equipment such as gas-phase pre-lithium furnaces, activation pore-making furnaces, carbonization furnaces, and tail gas treatment machines, and build a total of three experimental lines, including two cathode experimental lines and one anode experimental line: the first cathode experimental line: LFP cathode material synthesis small test line, with an annual output of 230 kg of LFP cathode material. The second cathode experimental line: XI sodium-ion cathode material synthesis test line, with an annual output of 1,500 kg of sodium-ion cathode material. Anode experimental line: ISS project test line, including a small test line for producing porous carbon carbon materials (annual output of 500 kg), pre-lithium silicon oxide material synthesis test line (annual output of 50 kg), and carbon-silicon materials (annual output of 100 kg). The total investment of the project is 3.5 million yuan, with an environmental protection investment of 660,000 yuan.

[SMM Sodium-ion Analysis: EPC General Contracting Tender Change for Alxa Left Banner Alateng Aobao Substation 5MW/20MWh Sodium-ion Unit Energy Storage Station Demonstration Project] On September 25, 2024, the Alxa Left Banner Alateng Aobao Substation 100MW/400MWh Independent New Energy Storage Station Demonstration Project issued an EPC general contracting tender change announcement, with no changes in project scale, progress, and tender price limits compared to the original announcement on September 14, 2024.

[Overseas Sodium-ion: Brazil's UCB Power to Launch 38.4kWh Sodium-ion Battery Energy Storage Project] On September 19, 2024, it was reported that Brazilian battery manufacturer UCB Power will deploy sodium-ion batteries for remote Amazon communities. The project involves 48V sodium-ion batteries, each capable of storing 38.4kWh of electricity, and is expected to be operational by the end of 2024. UCB Power estimates that by 2030, about 25% of lithium batteries will be replaced by sodium-ion battery equipment.

[Sodium-ion: GEM Sodium-ion Cathode Material Patent NaNiFeMnZnMO2] On September 24, 2024, the National Intellectual Property Administration released information showing that GEM (Wuxi) Energy Materials Co., Ltd. applied for a patent titled "A Sodium-ion Battery Cathode Material and Its Preparation Method and Application," with publication number CN118693273A, application date June 2024. The chemical formula of the sodium-ion battery cathode material is NawNibFecMndZneMaO2, where 0.85≤w≤1.02, 0.18
[Sodium-ion Hard Carbon Anode: Chilwee Hunan Xiangtan Sodium-ion Hard Carbon Anode Material R&D Test Project Environmental Assessment] On September 25, 2024, Hunan Chilwee New Energy Co., Ltd.'s annual production of 50 mt sodium-ion battery hard carbon anode material R&D test project environmental assessment was conducted in Yuhu District, Xiangtan City, with an investment of 120 million yuan to build an annual production of 50 mt sodium-ion battery hard carbon anode material R&D test project. This project belongs to the pilot production project of electronic special materials. [On the afternoon of December 28, 2023, Hunan Chilwee New Energy Co., Ltd.'s annual production of 30,000 mt sodium-ion battery material industrialisation project officially settled in Yuhu High-tech Zone, Xiangtan City. The project is invested by China's top 500 enterprise Chilwee Group, relying on the technical support of Professor Wang Xianyou's team from Xiangtan University. Vice President Ge Fei was invited to attend the signing ceremony. The annual production of 30,000 mt sodium-ion battery material project is aimed at the current bottleneck of sodium-ion battery development - the industrialisation of sodium-ion battery anode materials, utilizing the research results of Professor Wang Xianyou's team for industrial application. The project is constructed in two phases, covering an area of about 300 acres, with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan.]

[Sodium-ion Anode: Sodium Energy Era 3 Billion Yuan Hard Carbon Anode Project Signing] On the morning of September 30, 2024, a major project signing ceremony was grandly held in Changsha Economic and Technological Development Zone, and the Sodium Energy Era headquarters and industrialisation base project officially settled there. The total investment of the Sodium Energy Era headquarters and industrialisation base project is 3 billion yuan, planned to be constructed in two phases, including the establishment of a listed entity, R&D headquarters, and industrialisation base. The first phase is planned to reach production within three years, with an expected annual output value exceeding 2 billion yuan after reaching production. The project is led by the innovative team of the Resource Recycling Research Institute of Central South University. Currently, Sodium Energy Era has successfully built a pilot production line with an annual output of 1,000 mt of biomass-based reed hard carbon anode, with stable and reliable product quality. The pilot products have been successfully submitted to well-known domestic enterprises such as GAC Aion and Haichen Energy Storage.